Spent some time reading through their S10, investor presentation and Q10. Trying to understand the competitive environment around diabetes care.
I don't buy that the company is set up for growth. Their revenues have grown historically at 3-4% other than COVID barely beating out inflation. Even the investor presentation seems to indicate that the market for injection based devices is expected to be flat over the coming 5 years.
No growth in the core business isn't the end of the world. I don't think your valuation really takes it into account but it does mean I'd like to see a very large margin of safety based on TTM performance.
My biggest worry is how their cashflows will actually be used. They seem to want to do bolt on acquisitions and research. Based on my reading the diabetes treatment business is competitive with all big pharma players involved to some degree. There are a large number of new treatments in development. I don't have a lot of confidence that if EMBC invests their cash flows in acquisitions and research it will provide a good ROE.
The patch pump is interesting and as you noted. There is a pure play in the space TNDM. Which gives you an idea of potential upside if they are successful. But it's hard to known if and when they'll actually be able to start selling their pumps.
It also worries me that CEO and CFO are both external hires from outside BDX. The overall board also owns almost no shares as you pointed out.
For now I think this is a stock I put on my back burner and keep reviewing to see if I can become more comfortable with the plan moving forward. Thanks again for the interesting article!
A thorough comment Jacob. I agree that low growth is to be expected, and that this is not a problem per se (it all depends on the price). Also, I adjusted my model with an EBIT margin compression of 10% (instead of 5%), which seems more reasonable. The post has now been updated to reflect this (I should have done this earlier, my mistake). With 35% EBIT margins and continuation, I estimate that EMBC is with circa $38 per share. The MoS, then, appears sufficient, and the potential pump success is just an extra. You are also right to be concerned, I think, about the negligible stock ownership and outside hire problem. But we need to look at the numbers first, and the rest later. If I had valued EMBC at below $33 or so I would have passed on this stock. Your approach to hang back and observe seems appropriate in either case. Without full confidence it does not make sense to invest... ever. Would be cool to check back in with you down the line!
I hope my above comment doesn't come across as too negative. I think there is a lot to like with EMBC. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it trade up to the 30-40 dollar range. I tried to emphasize my hesitation in the comment since I like constructive feedback on my investment thesis.
Not at all, I appreciate your comments. I read your write-up and Enhabit's registration document btw. Whilst I don't like the balance sheet situation at all (not even enough cash to pay off current debt), I do appreciate that this is a fair business with some growth prospects. But I would be careful to call it undervalued per se. Insider ownership is very low, although the incentive plan allocates 14% of outstanding shares to management awards. I like the solid free cash flow, however, and the capex-light model, as you mentioned. Watchlist for now. Keep in mind these thoughts are just on the surface for now.
Thanks for taking a look. The current debt is a good point and not something I even considered. They should have an additional 180 million to draw under their credit facility, which can help with short term liquidity. But that is still cutting it a bit close.
The insider ownership is something I'd like to see improve. Open market insider buys would be a great sign for EHAB or EMBC.
Interesting write up. The baseline valuation look good on the surface given the quality of the business. Along with the spin dynamics it's pretty interesting.
Wonder what you think about the managements plan for reinvestment? Are you worried about management wasting the businesses cashflows?
Hi Jakub, thanks for your comment. I think any opinion on whether management will succeed is quite speculative, hence the conservative valuation; that said, with such strong cash flows that were once ALL passed to BD, I think organic growth is probable (underinvestment is in the past). To be honest, I am most concerned about potential disruption e.g., invention and clearance of an insulin pill. Also, I am still looking forward to your thoughts on Malibu Boats!
Thank you for this idea, I was digging more about it and cash flows seem on a downward path for the short term from what I could understand from the last management earnings call due to:
1. costs of spinoff
2. deprecation of old business
3. re-investment trough R&D
Point 1 is only short term (i.e next 6-12 months) but also seems to be worth at least 20% of "historical" cashflows. I still like this idea and the moat, just need to crunch more numbers myself
Regarding the risk of disruption - wouldn't a new pill take something like 10 years to be approved by the FDA?
Hi Frank, thanks for your comment. Indeed, there will be some margin contraction due to those and other factors. I cannot speak to the FDA approval time. But I concede that I should have done more research here into the disruptive drugs and solutions in other firms' portfolios. So if you are using this write-up as a springboard, I would recommend looking into that. Hope that helps.
It’s all fine until a disruptor comes along. Oramed Pharmaceuticals ($ORMP) is in Phase 3 trials of an insulin pill. Safer than pen injections, no threat of low blood sugar since the insulin gets metabolized in the liver.
this just in: Oramed’s US shares plunge 71% after the company’s experimental oral insulin failed in a late-stage clinical trial of Type 2 diabetes patients.
Yeah I exited as well some time ago, didn't want to take chances with the insulin pill. It reminded me why I don't invest in pharma - I only considered this because its such an old business model that I though it was safer from disruption which is not.
In any case I just saw these news in passing and remembered your write up.
Spent some time reading through their S10, investor presentation and Q10. Trying to understand the competitive environment around diabetes care.
I don't buy that the company is set up for growth. Their revenues have grown historically at 3-4% other than COVID barely beating out inflation. Even the investor presentation seems to indicate that the market for injection based devices is expected to be flat over the coming 5 years.
No growth in the core business isn't the end of the world. I don't think your valuation really takes it into account but it does mean I'd like to see a very large margin of safety based on TTM performance.
My biggest worry is how their cashflows will actually be used. They seem to want to do bolt on acquisitions and research. Based on my reading the diabetes treatment business is competitive with all big pharma players involved to some degree. There are a large number of new treatments in development. I don't have a lot of confidence that if EMBC invests their cash flows in acquisitions and research it will provide a good ROE.
The patch pump is interesting and as you noted. There is a pure play in the space TNDM. Which gives you an idea of potential upside if they are successful. But it's hard to known if and when they'll actually be able to start selling their pumps.
It also worries me that CEO and CFO are both external hires from outside BDX. The overall board also owns almost no shares as you pointed out.
For now I think this is a stock I put on my back burner and keep reviewing to see if I can become more comfortable with the plan moving forward. Thanks again for the interesting article!
A thorough comment Jacob. I agree that low growth is to be expected, and that this is not a problem per se (it all depends on the price). Also, I adjusted my model with an EBIT margin compression of 10% (instead of 5%), which seems more reasonable. The post has now been updated to reflect this (I should have done this earlier, my mistake). With 35% EBIT margins and continuation, I estimate that EMBC is with circa $38 per share. The MoS, then, appears sufficient, and the potential pump success is just an extra. You are also right to be concerned, I think, about the negligible stock ownership and outside hire problem. But we need to look at the numbers first, and the rest later. If I had valued EMBC at below $33 or so I would have passed on this stock. Your approach to hang back and observe seems appropriate in either case. Without full confidence it does not make sense to invest... ever. Would be cool to check back in with you down the line!
I hope my above comment doesn't come across as too negative. I think there is a lot to like with EMBC. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it trade up to the 30-40 dollar range. I tried to emphasize my hesitation in the comment since I like constructive feedback on my investment thesis.
I wonder if you have a taken a look at EHAB? Another recent spinoff. I wrote up a summary on Seeking Alpha. Would be interested in your thoughts. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524040-enhabit-a-chip-off-the-old-stock
Not at all, I appreciate your comments. I read your write-up and Enhabit's registration document btw. Whilst I don't like the balance sheet situation at all (not even enough cash to pay off current debt), I do appreciate that this is a fair business with some growth prospects. But I would be careful to call it undervalued per se. Insider ownership is very low, although the incentive plan allocates 14% of outstanding shares to management awards. I like the solid free cash flow, however, and the capex-light model, as you mentioned. Watchlist for now. Keep in mind these thoughts are just on the surface for now.
Thanks for taking a look. The current debt is a good point and not something I even considered. They should have an additional 180 million to draw under their credit facility, which can help with short term liquidity. But that is still cutting it a bit close.
The insider ownership is something I'd like to see improve. Open market insider buys would be a great sign for EHAB or EMBC.
Interesting write up. The baseline valuation look good on the surface given the quality of the business. Along with the spin dynamics it's pretty interesting.
Wonder what you think about the managements plan for reinvestment? Are you worried about management wasting the businesses cashflows?
I'll have to dig in some more.
Hi Jakub, thanks for your comment. I think any opinion on whether management will succeed is quite speculative, hence the conservative valuation; that said, with such strong cash flows that were once ALL passed to BD, I think organic growth is probable (underinvestment is in the past). To be honest, I am most concerned about potential disruption e.g., invention and clearance of an insulin pill. Also, I am still looking forward to your thoughts on Malibu Boats!
Thank you for this idea, I was digging more about it and cash flows seem on a downward path for the short term from what I could understand from the last management earnings call due to:
1. costs of spinoff
2. deprecation of old business
3. re-investment trough R&D
Point 1 is only short term (i.e next 6-12 months) but also seems to be worth at least 20% of "historical" cashflows. I still like this idea and the moat, just need to crunch more numbers myself
Regarding the risk of disruption - wouldn't a new pill take something like 10 years to be approved by the FDA?
Hi Frank, thanks for your comment. Indeed, there will be some margin contraction due to those and other factors. I cannot speak to the FDA approval time. But I concede that I should have done more research here into the disruptive drugs and solutions in other firms' portfolios. So if you are using this write-up as a springboard, I would recommend looking into that. Hope that helps.
From conangreer18 on Reddit.
It’s all fine until a disruptor comes along. Oramed Pharmaceuticals ($ORMP) is in Phase 3 trials of an insulin pill. Safer than pen injections, no threat of low blood sugar since the insulin gets metabolized in the liver.
this just in: Oramed’s US shares plunge 71% after the company’s experimental oral insulin failed in a late-stage clinical trial of Type 2 diabetes patients.
Sorry for the late reply, and good catch! I exited EMBC a while ago as it approached my target price. I didn't want to take a chance there.
Yeah I exited as well some time ago, didn't want to take chances with the insulin pill. It reminded me why I don't invest in pharma - I only considered this because its such an old business model that I though it was safer from disruption which is not.
In any case I just saw these news in passing and remembered your write up.